Are mangrove carbon stocks climate-secure? Linking climate risk to blue carbon permanence

As Nature-based Solutions gain prominence in global climate policy, mangrove forests have emerged as critical Blue Carbon (BC) assets. However, current carbon accounting frameworks largely treat these ecosystems as static repositories, often ignoring the accelerating risks posed by climate change itself. This review synthesises the physical and biochemical mechanisms of carbon instability – categorised into acute shocks (e.g., cyclones), chronic stressors (sea-level rise), and synergistic risks (coastal squeeze). The study argues that the foundational industry assumption of carbon permanence is increasingly decoupled from ecological reality. By comparing market standards (e.g., Verra) with scientific frameworks (IPCC), we identify a critical operational gap in how future climate hazards are integrated into project-level risk discounting and buffer pool management. To address this, we propose a transition from a carbon stock paradigm to a climate-secure framework. This new approach advocates for prospective, risk-screened accounting that quantifies carbon; site-specific stability scoring is essential to ensure the long-term integrity of BC credits and their meaningful contribution to National Determined Contributions.